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Nutrien Ltd NTR

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Morningstar’s Analysis

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No Changes to Our Long-Term Potash Outlook as BHP Moves Forward With New Potash Mine

Seth Goldstein, CFA Senior Equity Analyst

Analyst Note

| Seth Goldstein, CFA |

On Aug. 17, BHP announced it will move forward to build the Jansen potash mine is Saskatchewan, Canada. The project is expected to enter production in 2027 and eventually produce 4.35 million metric tons in 2029 when it is fully ramped up. Given our favorable outlook for potash demand, we see little long-term impact to potash prices as demand growth will sop up new supply, leaving the market balanced. As such, we maintain our long-term potash price forecast of $280 per metric ton in 2021 real terms on a China contract basis.

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Company Profile

Business Description

Created in 2018 as a result of the merger between PotashCorp and Agrium, Nutrien is the world’s largest fertilizer producer by capacity. Nutrien produces the three main crop nutrients--nitrogen, potash, and phosphate--although its main focus is potash, where it is the global leader in installed capacity with roughly 20% share. The company is also the largest agricultural retailer in the United States, selling fertilizers, crop chemicals, seeds, and services directly to farm customers through both its physical stores and online platforms.

Contact
122 - 1st Avenue South, Suite 500
Saskatoon, SK, S7K 7G3, Canada
T +1 306 933-8500
Sector Basic Materials
Industry Agricultural Inputs
Most Recent Earnings Jun 30, 2021
Fiscal Year End Dec 31, 2021
Stock Type
Employees 23,100

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