Analyst Note| Seth Goldstein, CFA |
On Aug. 17, BHP announced it will move forward to build the Jansen potash mine is Saskatchewan, Canada. The project is expected to enter production in 2027 and eventually produce 4.35 million metric tons in 2029 when it is fully ramped up. Given our favorable outlook for potash demand, we see little long-term impact to potash prices as demand growth will sop up new supply, leaving the market balanced. As such, we maintain our long-term potash price forecast of $280 per metric ton in 2021 real terms on a China contract basis.