Analyst Note| Dan Wasiolek |
Accor’s first-quarter revenue per available room reached 75% of 2019 levels (compared with 73% in the prior three months) as travel demand remained resilient amid geopolitical concerns. Accor expects revPAR to continue to improve, noting strong summer bookings and a view that domestic travel will fully recover by the end of 2022, along with a ramp-up of international and business travel, the latter of which is already more than half recovered. We still expect Accor’s revPAR to fully recover by 2023, which we believe is reflected in neither current FactSet consensus estimates nor the share price, but we now expect 2022 revPAR to reach a mid-80s percentage of prepandemic marks, versus the low 70s previously. As a result, we plan to lift our EUR 38 fair value estimate by around EUR 1 per share and think investors seeking travel exposure should explore an investment in Accor.