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Accor SA AC Stock Quote

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Morningstar‘s Stock Analysis AC

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Accor Lifts 2022 EBITDA Guidance as First-Half Marketing Spending Abates; Shares Attractive

Dan Wasiolek Senior Equity Analyst

Analyst Note

| Dan Wasiolek |

Accor increased its 2022 EBITDA guidance to EUR 610 million-EUR 640 million from EUR 550 million based on marketing spending normalizing from first-half levels and demand remaining strong through the summer months. After Accor’s first-half earnings update, we expected higher marketing spending to deflate, as we believed the expense was driven by ramping demand and the reopening of key regions like Australia (around 15% of total rooms). As a result, we largely maintained our EBITDA forecasts at that time. Now, except for lifting our 2022 EBITDA estimate of EUR 572 million to within the new targeted range, we don’t plan to alter our long-term EBITDA forecast for 23% margins by 2024 versus 20% in 2019. We plan to wait for the hotelier’s sales update in October before reassessing our revenue forecast, which calls for revenue per available room of around 90% and 95% of 2019’s level in 2022 and 2023, respectively, followed by a full recovery to 2019’s level in 2024. We maintain our EUR 37.50 fair value estimate and see the shares as undervalued.

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Key Statistics AC

Company Profile AC

Business Description

Accor operates 778,000 rooms across over 40 brands addressing the economy through luxury segments, as of Dec. 31, 2021. Ibis (economy scale) is the largest brand (37% of total rooms at the end of 2021), followed by Novotel (14%) and Mercure (15%). FRHI offers additional luxury and North American exposure. After the sale of the majority of HotelInvest (owned assets) in 2018-19, the majority of total EBITDA comes from HotelServices (asset-light). Northern Europe represents 21% of rooms, Southern Europe 23%, Asia-Pacific region 31%, Americas 13%, and India, Middle East, and Africa 12%. Economy and midscale are 73% of rooms.

82, Rue Henri Farman, Tour Sequana, Issy-les-Moulineaux
Paris, 92130, France
T +33 145388600
Industry Lodging
Most Recent Earnings
Fiscal Year End Dec 31, 2022
Employees 158,604