Analyst Note| Allen Good, CFA |
At TotalEnergies’ annual analyst day, management updated its various operational and financial goals while reiterating its strategy to transition away from oil products toward natural gas and renewables as to achieve its decarbonization targets. Most notable items are the increase in renewable investment while narrowing its capital guidance range and increasing its estimated 2025 return on equity to 12%. It now also assumes oil production growth from 2021, but peaking in the next decade, in line with its global demand outlook, as 2030 volumes fall to 2019 levels. Meanwhile, it plans for both oil product sales and refining capacity to be well below 2019 levels by 2030.