Analyst Note
| Dan Romanoff, CPA |Narrow-moat Shopify reported first quarter results that fell well short of our expectations. Although we remain bullish on e-commerce over the long-term, the near-term outlook for Shopify remains uncertain (as evidenced by our very high fair value uncertainty rating) as we search for a new normal for e-commerce in a post-COVID world. Combined with modest negative revisions to our long-term growth estimates and meaningfully lower profitability assumptions throughout our forecast, we are cutting our fair value estimate to $450 per share from $730 (to CAD 580 from CAD 930 for Canadian shares). Shares appear fairly valued to us.