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Morningstar's Rogers Communications Inc Shs -B- Non-Voting Stock Analysis

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Potential Competition Bureau Opposition Makes Approval of the Rogers-Shaw Merger More Uncertain

Matthew Dolgin, CFA Equity Analyst

Analyst Note

| Matthew Dolgin, CFA |

Rogers announced on Friday, May 6, that Canada’s Competition Bureau has informed Rogers and Shaw that it intends to oppose their proposed merger. Rogers further announced that it remains committed to completing the transaction, extended the outside date of the deal occurring to July 31 from June 13, and is willing to sell Shaw’s Freedom Mobile wireless business to make approval more likely. Rogers will have to either come to an agreement with the Competition Bureau or argue and win its case before the Competition Tribunal to get the deal done. The fate of the deal has no impact on our CAD 70 fair value estimate for Rogers, but we are reducing our fair value estimate for Shaw from CAD 38 to CAD 35. With approval now potentially riding on a court decision, we can no longer say deal completion is more likely than not. Our standalone fair value estimate for Shaw remains CAD 30, but we now use only a 50% probability the deal is completed at CAD 40.50.

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Rogers Communications Inc Shs -B- Non-Voting's Company Profile

Business Description

Rogers is the largest wireless service provider in Canada, with its more than 10 million subscribers equating to one third of the total Canadian market. Rogers' wireless business accounted for 60% of the company's total sales in 2021 and has increasingly provided a bigger portion of total company sales over the last several years. Rogers' cable segment, which provides about one fourth of total sales, offers home internet, television, and landline phone service to consumers and businesses. Remaining sales come from Rogers' media unit, which owns and operates various television and radio stations and the Toronto Blue Jays. Rogers' significant exposure to sports also includes ownership stakes in the Toronto Maple Leafs, Raptors, FC, and Argonauts.

333 Bloor Street East, 10th Floor
Toronto, ON, M4W 1G9, Canada
T +1 416 935-7777
Sector Communication Services
Industry Telecom Services
Most Recent Earnings Mar 31, 2022
Fiscal Year End Dec 31, 2021
Stock Type
Employees 23,000

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