Analyst Note| Stephen Ellis |
Pembina’s third-quarter results were solid. The company boosted its 2022 EBITDA guidance midpoint by CAD 50 million to close to CAD 3.7 billion, thanks to higher expected contributions from marketing profits. The contributions were mainly from wider oil and gas spreads. That said, with the collapse in natural gas liquids prices recently, we expect some near-term softness from the marketing side, so we've trimmed our 2023 outlook. After updating our model, we will maintain our CAD 37 and USD 27 per share fair value estimates and no-moat rating.