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Nutrien Ltd NTR

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Nutrien Reports Strong Third Quarter on Cyclically High Fertilizer Prices; Shares Fairly Valued

Seth Goldstein, CFA Senior Equity Analyst

Analyst Note

| Seth Goldstein, CFA |

Nutrien reported strong third-quarter results. Adjusted EBITDA soared 145% year on year versus the prior-year quarter as higher fertilizer prices were partially offset by higher costs. We have increased our near-term outlook for the three primary fertilizer prices, including potash, nitrogen, and phosphate, to reflect higher spot prices. However, we forecast that fertilizer prices are approaching a cyclical peak and expect prices to moderate after 2022. As a result, our long-term price outlook remains intact. Separately, we have increased our nitrogen cost forecast for Nutrien to reflect our higher long-term U.S. natural gas price forecast. Having updated our model to reflect these changes, we maintain our $68 per share fair value estimate for Nutrien. Our CAD fair value estimate falls to CAD 84 per share from CAD 85 due to a strengthening of the Canadian loonie versus the U.S. dollar since our last update.

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Company Profile

Business Description

Created in 2018 as a result of the merger between PotashCorp and Agrium, Nutrien is the world’s largest fertilizer producer by capacity. Nutrien produces the three main crop nutrients--nitrogen, potash, and phosphate--although its main focus is potash, where it is the global leader in installed capacity with roughly 20% share. The company is also the largest agricultural retailer in the United States, selling fertilizers, crop chemicals, seeds, and services directly to farm customers through both its physical stores and online platforms.

122 - 1st Avenue South, Suite 500
Saskatoon, SK, S7K 7G3, Canada
T +1 306 933-8500
Sector Basic Materials
Industry Agricultural Inputs
Most Recent Earnings Sep 30, 2021
Fiscal Year End Dec 31, 2021
Stock Type
Employees 23,100