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Morningstar‘s Stock Analysis MGM

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Macao Demand Set to Wake Up With Planned Easing of Restrictions; Near-Term Still Highly Uncertain

Dan Wasiolek Senior Equity Analyst

Analyst Note

| Dan Wasiolek |

Our forecast for a Macao demand recovery starting in November after China’s Communist party convention in October gathered momentum this past weekend, with the region planning to reinstate group and eVisa travel for mainland China (around 70% of prepandemic Macao visits) as early as late October. This would prove to be a material step forward in Macao’s recovery, with near-term targets to at least double visitation from recent levels to 40,000 per day. Given 2019 averaged about 110,000 visits per day, we think achieving this target could translate to Macao gross gaming revenue, or GGR, reaching 40% of prepandemic marks as soon as November. This would align with our 40%-50% level forecast for the final two months of 2022. As a result, we plan to maintain our 2022 Macao industry GGR forecast at low- to mid-20s of 2019’s level. Meanwhile, government leadership set a goal for at least 80,000 daily visits in the medium term, which we believe can equate to industry GGR of more than 70% of 2019’s amount. With the medium term undefined, we think our industry GGR 2023 forecast of about 60% of prepandemic levels with a full recovery toward the end of 2024 is still reachable at this juncture.

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Key Statistics MGM

Company Profile MGM

Business Description

MGM Resorts is the largest resort operator on the Las Vegas Strip with 35,000 guest rooms and suites, representing about one fourth of all units in the market. The company's Vegas properties include MGM Grand, Mandalay Bay, Cosmopolitan, Luxor, New York-New York, and CityCenter. The Strip contributed approximately 49% of total EBITDAR in the prepandemic year of 2019. MGM also owns U.S. regional assets, which represented 29% of 2019 EBITDAR. we estimate MGM's U.S. sports and iGaming operations are currently a mid-single-digit percentage of its total revenue. The company also operates the 56%-owned MGM Macau casinos with a new property that opened on the Cotai Strip in early 2018. Further, we estimate MGM will open a resort in Japan in 2027.

3600 Las Vegas Boulevard South
Las Vegas, NV, 89109
T +1 702 693-7120
Industry Resorts & Casinos
Most Recent Earnings Jun 30, 2022
Fiscal Year End Dec 31, 2022
Employees 69,000

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