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Las Vegas Sands Corp - Stock Quote LVS

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Lowering Our Near-Term Macao Gaming Forecast Amid China’s Enduring Stringent COVID-19 Policy

Dan Wasiolek Senior Equity Analyst

Analyst Note

| Dan Wasiolek |

We are reducing our 2022 and 2023 Macao industry gross gaming sales forecasts to mid-20% and 60% of 2019 levels, respectively, down from 40% and 70% prior, as China’s zero-tolerance COVID-19 policy looks to endure beyond our prior expectation of mid-2022. We are removing the 0.5% China country risk premium in our Las Vegas Sands and Wynn models and instead reflecting the near-term COVID-19 and structural Macao government oversight through our uncertainty rating, which now moves to very high from high on these two operators. Our reduced 2022-23 industry forecast lowers our respective fair value estimates on Las Vegas Sands (Macao 66% of estimated 2024 EBITDA), Wynn (53%), and MGM (13%) to $50, $104, and $47, from $52, $105, and $47.50. While shares of these companies trade at a discount to our intrinsic values, we expect their price movements to remain volatile in the near term.

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Las Vegas Sands Corp's Company Profile

Business Description

Las Vegas Sands is the world's largest operator of fully integrated resorts, featuring casino, hotel, entertainment, food and beverage, retail, and convention center operations. The company owns the Venetian Macao, Sands Macao, Londoner, Four Seasons Hotel Macao, and Parisian in Macao, and the Marina Bay Sands resort in Singapore. Its Venetian and Palazzo Las Vegas in the U.S. asets were sold to Apollo and VICI for $6.25 billion in 2022. We expect Sands to open a fourth tower in Singapore in 2026. After the sale of its Vegas assets, the company will generate all its EBITDA from Asia, with its casino operations generating the majority of sales.

3355 Las Vegas Boulevard South
Las Vegas, NV, 89109
T +1 702 923-9000
Sector Consumer Cyclical
Industry Resorts & Casinos
Most Recent Earnings Mar 31, 2022
Fiscal Year End Dec 31, 2022
Stock Type Cyclical
Employees 44,700

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