Analyst Note| Greggory Warren, CFA |
We've lowered our fair value estimate for narrow-moat-rated Janus Henderson to USD 32 (AUD 46) per share from USD 39 (AUD 52) after updating our valuation model to include lower levels of assets under management in the near term given more recent market returns as well as the company's divestment of its INTECH quantitative equites subsidiary. The asset manager closed out March 2022 with USD 361.0 billion in managed assets, down 16.5% sequentially. The USD 34.6 billion decline in the firm's managed assets (which included results from INTECH) during the first quarter of 2022 was driven by market losses (of USD 26.5 billion), adverse currency exchange (USD 1.9 billion), and outflows (USD 6.2 billion). Things have likely deteriorated further during the second quarter (even after the company sold the INTECH division).