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Ford Motor Co F

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Low F-150 Inventory Hurts Ford's Fourth-Quarter Sales, but We Have High Expectations for 2021 Demand

Analyst Note

| David Whiston, CFA, CPA, CFE |

According to Wards, December auto sales rose year over year by 6.4% but fell by 5.0% after adjusting for three extra selling days in December 2020. The seasonally adjusted annualized selling rate of 16.27 million lagged December 2019’s 16.81 million. With a COVID-19 vaccine rolling out in 2021, we think 2020’s full-year total of 14.46 million is the bottom of this cycle, and we expect robust year-over-year growth in 2021 against a soft comparable followed by more tepid growth in 2022. Light-truck models remain immensely popular, good news for the Detroit Three, and according to Wards, 2020 was the first year that crossovers and SUVs combined for over half (52%) of U.S. new light-vehicle sales.

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Company Profile

Business Description

Ford Motor Co. manufactures automobiles under its Ford and Lincoln brands. The company has about 14.1% market share in the United States and about 7% share in Europe. Sales in North America and Europe made up 68% and 20% of 2019 auto revenue, respectively. Ford has about 190,000 employees, including about 56,000 UAW employees, and is based in Dearborn, Michigan.

One American Road
Dearborn, MI, 48126
T +1 313 322-3000
Sector Consumer Cyclical
Industry Auto Manufacturers
Most Recent Earnings Sep 30, 2020
Fiscal Year End Dec 31, 2020
Stock Type Cyclical
Employees 190,000