Analyst Note
| Dave Meats, CFA |EOG’s first-quarter production came in at 883.3 mboe/d, which was slightly better than guidance and 2% higher sequentially. The firm also showed resilience to inflation during the first quarter, reporting capital spending of just over $1 billion, near the low end of guidance. While it theoretically has exposure to the same inflationary pressures that have weighed on the rest of the industry, EOG enjoys greater economies of scale and was more proactive than some of its peers in anticipating rising costs and locking in as many of its obligations as it could, giving it a slight edge. Thus far, about 90% of the drilling fleet and 60% of the firm’s frac fleets costs have been locked in for the year. But even though the firm kept capital spending below guidance, management’s outlook for operating expenses ticked up slightly, signaling that the firm’s inflation immunity has limits. After incorporating these higher run rates, we have shortened our fair value estimate to $106 to $108, underscoring our view that the market has gotten carried away in a high price environment that won’t last. Full-year production and spending guidance remain unchanged.