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CF Industries Holdings Inc CF

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Raising CF Industries FVE to $57 on Higher Near-Term Forecast; Shares Fairly Valued

Seth Goldstein, CFA Senior Equity Analyst

Analyst Note

| Seth Goldstein, CFA |

On Dec. 9, CF Industries raised its 2021 annual adjusted EBITDA guidance to a midpoint of $2.75 billion from the prior midpoint of $2.3 billion. The guidance raise was driven by higher nitrogen prices and increased ammonia volumes. Given the strong market prices for nitrogen, we think the updated guidance is reasonable. Having updated our model to reflect higher near-term results, we raise our CF Industries fair value estimate to $57 per share from $56. Our no-moat rating is unchanged.

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Company Profile

Business Description

CF Industries is a leading producer and distributor of nitrogen fertilizers. The company operates seven nitrogen facilities in North America and holds joint-venture interests in further production capacity in the United Kingdom and Trinidad and Tobago. CF makes nitrogen primarily using low-cost U.S. natural gas as its feedstock, making CF one of the lowest-cost nitrogen producers globally. The company is also investing in carbon-free blue and green ammonia, which can be used an alternative fuel to hydrogen or as a means to transport hydrogen.

4 Parkway North, Suite 400
Deerfield, IL, 60015
T +1 847 405-2400
Sector Basic Materials
Industry Agricultural Inputs
Most Recent Earnings Sep 30, 2021
Fiscal Year End Dec 31, 2020
Stock Type Cyclical
Employees 3,000