Analyst Note| Seth Goldstein, CFA |
On Dec. 9, CF Industries raised its 2021 annual adjusted EBITDA guidance to a midpoint of $2.75 billion from the prior midpoint of $2.3 billion. The guidance raise was driven by higher nitrogen prices and increased ammonia volumes. Given the strong market prices for nitrogen, we think the updated guidance is reasonable. Having updated our model to reflect higher near-term results, we raise our CF Industries fair value estimate to $57 per share from $56. Our no-moat rating is unchanged.