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Carnival Corp CCL

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Morningstar’s Analysis

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Uncertainty Prevails at No-Moat Carnival; Set-Sail Dates Continue to Be Pushed as COVID-19 Rages On

Jaime M. Katz, CFA Senior Equity Analyst

Analyst Note

| Jaime M. Katz, CFA |

Carnival’s preliminary adjusted net loss for $1.9 billion was wider than the $1.3 billion loss we had forecast, but little other insight was offered with the primary look at fourth-quarter 2020. Given the continual movement of start-sail dates (Costa now set to launch in February, AIDA in March, Carnival in April, and Holland America and Princess in May), the 2021 prognosis remains opaque, with losses again set to ensue in both the first quarter and the full year of 2021. Little insight was provided to sway our longer-term demand outlook; Carnival noted that as of Dec. 20, 2020, cumulative advanced bookings for the second half of 2021 are within the historical range and cumulative advanced bookings for the first half of 2022 are ahead of 2019. With our assumption that the domestic vaccine rollout is largely completed by year-end, we don’t plan to alter our already tepid post-COVID-19 forecast that calls for 2% yield and 1% cost growth on average.

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Company Profile

Business Description

Carnival is the largest global cruise company, set to deploy 88 ships on the seas once cruising fully resumes after the pandemic. Its portfolio of brands includes Carnival Cruise Lines, Holland America, Princess Cruises, and Seabourn in North America; P&O Cruises and Cunard Line in the United Kingdom; Aida in Germany; Costa Cruises in Southern Europe; and P&O Cruises in Australia. Carnival also owns Holland America Princess Alaska Tours in Alaska and the Canadian Yukon. Carnival's brands attracted about 13 million guests in 2019, prior to COVID-19.

Contact
3655 N.W. 87th Avenue
Miami, FL, 33178-2428, Panama
T +1 305 599-2600
Sector Consumer Cyclical
Industry Travel Services
Most Recent Earnings Nov 30, 2020
Fiscal Year End Nov 30, 2021
Stock Type
Employees 70,000

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