Analyst Note| Seth Goldstein, CFA |
Our key takeaway from Albemarle’s investor day held on Sept. 10 was greater clarity around the company’s lithium capacity expansion plans. Management targets 410,000 to 460,000 metric tons of capacity by the end of Wave III and Wave IV, which we think is likely by the end of the decade. This planned volume growth is above our previous forecast. After updating our model to incorporate higher volumes, we are raising our Albemarle fair value estimate to $200 per share from $165. Our narrow moat rating is unchanged.