Analyst Note| Seth Goldstein, CFA |
On Jan. 2, Tesla reported strong fourth-quarter and full-year vehicle delivery numbers. On the year, Tesla reported 936,172 vehicles delivered, which is up over 87% year on year versus 2020. We have updated our model to incorporate higher 2021 sales volumes and have raised our outlook for 2022. We forecast Tesla will deliver a little over 1.5 million vehicles in 2022, which represents over 60% year-on-year growth. Separately, we have decreased our 2022 gross margin forecast for Tesla as we expect increased production costs associated with the opening of the two new production plants in Austin, Texas, (U.S.) and in Berlin, Germany. Our long-term outlook is largely unchanged as we continue to expect Tesla's sales growth will slow.