Analyst Note| Dan Wasiolek |
We plan to increase our narrow-moat TripAdvisor $33.50 fair value estimate around a high-single digit percentage to account for stronger demand on the company’s industry-leading experiences and dining platform (35% of sales), a segment we think is worth between $25-$30 per share. TA’s first-quarter E&D sales grew to 115% of 2019 levels, up from 90% last quarter, as demand broadened to Europe from North America, which has led the industry’s recovery. In fact, the segment’s sales were above 130% of prepandemic marks in April, with Europe bookings now equaling North America. As a result, we plan to lift our 2022 E&D revenue forecast toward 125% of 2019 levels from 108%, which would imply around 128% of 2019 levels averaged in the final three quarters of the year.