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Raising Our BioNTech FVE on COVID-19 Vaccine Profits, but Long-Term Vaccine Outlook Remains Hazy

Anna Baran Equity Analyst

Analyst Note

| Anna Baran |

After analyzing recent developments in the evolving COVID-19 vaccine landscape, we’ve added BioNTech’s vaccine candidate to our model with a 60% probability of success. On a probability-weighted basis, we model about EUR 3.6 billion in 2021 revenue or EUR 2.4 billion in 2021 gross profits for BioNTech. After accounting for probability-weighted milestones to BioNTech and development costs that the company will pay back to Pfizer, we’re raising our fair value estimate to $56 per ADR from $40 and maintaining our no-moat and very high uncertainty ratings.

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Company Profile

Business Description

BioNTech is a Germany-based biotechnology company that focuses on developing cancer therapeutics, including individualized immunotherapy, as well as vaccines for infectious diseases, including COVID-19. The company's oncology pipeline contains several classes of drugs, including mRNA-based drugs to encode antigens, neoantigens, cytokines, and antibodies; cell therapies; bispecific antibodies; and small-molecule immunomodulators. BioNTech is partnered with several large pharmaceutical companies, including Roche, Eli Lilly, Pfizer, Sanofi, and Genmab, and does not yet have any commercialized medicines.

An der Goldgrube 12
Mainz, D-55131, Germany
T +49 613190840
Sector Healthcare
Industry Biotechnology
Most Recent Earnings Mar 31, 2020
Fiscal Year End Dec 31, 2020
Stock Type
Employees 1,310