Analyst Note| Karen Andersen, CFA |
On June 7, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved Biogen's Aduhelm (aducanumab) as a treatment for Alzheimer's disease under its accelerated approval pathway, determining that the benefits of treatment outweighed the risks. We've raised our fair value estimate for Biogen to $401 from $350 following this news, as we had incorporated only a 40% probability of approval into our model, and the drug's list price ($56,000 annually) is significantly higher than we had assumed. We now model more than $7 billion in Aduhelm global sales by 2030. Overall, the incorporation of Aduhelm into Biogen's neurology-focused portfolio provides additional support for our wide moat rating.