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Activision Blizzard Reports Decent Q3; CoD Appears To Be Back on Track With Modern Warfare II

Neil Macker, CFA Senior Equity Analyst

Analyst Note

| Neil Macker, CFA |

Activision Blizzard posted a better-than-expected third quarter, with top line and EBITDA ahead of FactSet consensus estimates. As expected, GAAP revenue continued to decline, down 14% year over year due to the continued knock-on effect of weak sales and user retention of Call of Duty: Vanguard versus the 2020 installment. This year’s installment, Modern Warfare II, has gotten off to an impressive start since its launch on Oct. 28, boding well for the next few quarters. Due to the pending acquisition by Microsoft, management is foregoing earnings calls. Despite the recent United Kingdom regulator decision to further examine the deal, we still believe that the merger will be approved, though the closing will likely not occur until the summer of 2023 at the earliest. We are maintaining our fair value estimate of $92, which balances our standalone valuation (also at $92), the acquisition value of $95 a share, and the potential for further regulatory intervention.

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Company Profile ATVI

Business Description

Activision Blizzard was formed in 2008 by the merger of Activision, one of the largest console video game publishers, and Blizzard, one of largest PC video game publishers. The combined firm remains one of the world's largest video game publishers. Activision's impressive franchise portfolio includes World of Warcraft, which boasts more than $8 billion of lifetime sales, and Call of Duty, which has sold over 175 million copies across 14 titles over 12 years.

2701 Olympic Boulevard, Building B
Santa Monica, CA, 90404
T +1 310 255-2000
Industry Electronic Gaming & Multimedia
Most Recent Earnings Sep 30, 2022
Fiscal Year End Dec 31, 2022
Employees 9,800

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