Analyst Note| Dan Romanoff, CPA |
Wide-moat Amazon reported second-quarter results that were within its guidance range but were slightly short of investor expectations for both revenue and operating profit. Guidance for the third quarter is also light compared with FactSet consensus. In short, consumers' online shopping levels are returning to more normal levels as they shift some spending to other entertainment sources and offline shopping. Meanwhile, the company continues to add capacity at a breakneck pace in order to meet customer demand and one day delivery, even as it roughly doubled its footprint during the last 18 months. We see no cracks in the long-term story as Amazon remains well positioned to prosper from the secular shift toward e-commerce and the public cloud over the next decade. We note revenue weakness was limited to Amazon’s own online store segment, with other segments performing well and overall profitability impressive despite lower revenue. Our model changes are fairly modest, thus we are maintaining our $4,200 per share fair value estimate and see shares as undervalued.