Analyst Note| Mathew Hodge, CFA |
We modestly reduce our fair value estimates for coal miners operating in Queensland after the state imposed higher royalties on coal sales. Of our coverage, no-moat Anglo American is the most affected, and we reduce our fair value estimate to GBX 3,200 per share from GBX 3,350. We also lower our fair value estimates for no-moat BHP to AUD 38.00 per share, from AUD 38.50, and for no-moat Glencore to GBX 570 per share, down from GBX 580. However, we maintain our fair value estimates for no-moat New Hope and Whitehaven Coal of AUD 4.00 per share and AUD 5.20 per share, respectively.