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Novo Nordisk A/S Class B - Stock Quote NOVO B

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Morningstar's Novo Nordisk A/S Class B Stock Analysis

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Raising Our Novo Nordisk Fair Value Estimate to $110/DKK 780 on GLP-1 Market Strength

Karen Andersen, CFA Sector Strategist

Analyst Note

| Karen Andersen, CFA |

We're raising our Novo Nordisk fair value estimate to $110/DKK 780 from $97/DKK 640 following solid first-quarter results despite supply disruptions for new obesity drug Wegovy. Novo Nordisk's sales grew 18% at constant currencies in the first quarter, with double-digit growth in the U.S. and internationally driven by 45% growth in GLP-1 sales in diabetes. GLP-1 diabetes market growth continues at an impressive pace (30% in the U.S. in the quarter), as these therapies are moving earlier in the treatment cascade and now more frequently used following generic metformin. Management significantly raised sales growth guidance to 10%-14% at constant currencies for the full year, factoring in a tailwind from stronger supply of new obesity drug Wegovy in the second half of the year but also some headwind from overall GLP-1 supply constraints as well as a 3-percentage-point hit to China insulin sales as part of their inclusion in the country's volume-based procurement system. We've raised our GLP-1 sales projections in the second half of the year, factoring in a boost from the upcoming launch of the high-dose version of diabetes drug Ozempic, as well as sales for hemophilia drug candidate concizumab, which we've added to our valuation model. Overall, Novo's continued innovation in diabetes continues to support a wide moat rating.  

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Novo Nordisk A/S Class B's Company Profile

Business Description

With almost 50% market share by volume of the global insulin market, Novo Nordisk is the leading provider of diabetes-care products in the world. Based in Denmark, the company manufactures and markets a variety of human and modern insulins, injectable diabetes treatments, and oral antidiabetic agents. Novo also has a biopharmaceutical segment (constituting roughly 15% of revenue) that specializes in protein therapies for hemophilia and other disorders.

Novo Alle 1
Bagsvaerd, DK-2880, Denmark
T +45 44448888
Sector Healthcare
Industry Biotechnology
Most Recent Earnings Mar 31, 2022
Fiscal Year End Dec 31, 2022
Stock Type
Employees 45,000