Analyst Note| Rob Hales, CFA |
No-moat Solvay reported third-quarter EBITDA of EUR 599 million, up 31% organically over 2020 and beating Vara consensus by 5%. EBITDA guidance for 2021 of EUR 2.2 billion-2.3 billion was maintained but free cash flow is now expected to be EUR 800 million (EUR 750 million previously). Slight net positive changes to our outlook increase our fair value estimate to EUR 115 from EUR 109. At current levels, the shares look fairly valued.