Analyst Note| Jon Mills, CFA |
After reviewing our production and cost assumptions, we retain our fair value estimate of AUD 31 per share for no-moat Newcrest Mining and it remains one of our Best Ideas. Due to a technical error, our last note published Aug. 22, 2022 displayed incorrect financial data and an incorrect fair value estimate of AUD 31 per share with a 5-star rating. The correct fair value estimate should have been AUD 29 with a 4-star rating. However, after correcting the error and incorporating our latest foreign exchange assumptions into our model, our fair value estimate remains AUD 31. We also lower our fair value uncertainty rating to Medium from High. Cyclical commodity prices and high capital intensity are partially offset by its low-cost position and moderate financial leverage. Gold prices also tend to be relatively uncorrelated to the broader economic cycle.