Analyst Note| Stephen Ellis |
Natural gas prices have collapsed more than 50% off recent highs amid very mild weather in the EU and the U.S. In the U.S., prices are now below $4 per million cubic feet (mcf)—below where they were before the outbreak of hostilities between Russia and Ukraine. Prices are also much closer to our $3.30 midcycle forecast for Henry Hub versus the almost $10 per mcf they traded at in August. EU power prices are EUR 76 euros per megawatt hour (MWH), compared with August levels of closer to EUR 350 per MWH.