Analyst Note| Philip Gorham, CFA, FRM |
Heineken reported interim 2021 results that were bang in line with our forecasts on the top line. Margins were ahead of our forecasts but are likely to come under pressure in the second half of the year as raw material inflation bites. Although we are only making very minor changes to our near-term estimates, we have rolled our model and are raising our fair value estimate to EUR 84/$50 per share from EUR 82/$49. We recognize Heineken’s long-term growth opportunities in emerging markets and through its premium portfolio, but we continue to regard the stock as being somewhat overvalued.