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Joe Davis: 'We Will See China-Like Growth for a Time in the United States'

Vanguard’s chief economist discusses his team’s latest research, how the pandemic has changed the economy, and the future of work.

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Our guest on the podcast today is Joe Davis, global chief economist at Vanguard. Joe also heads up Vanguard's Investment Strategy Group, a team that conducts research on portfolio construction, develops the firm's economic and market outlook, and helps oversee Vanguard's asset-allocation strategies for both institutional and individual investors. He is also a member of the senior portfolio management team for Vanguard Fixed Income Group. He earned a doctorate in economics at Duke University.

Background

Bio

Asset Bubbles

Bitcoin: Digital Gold or Fool’s Gold?” by Joe Davis, vanguard.com, March 13, 2018.

Vanguard’s Joe Davis on the State of the Markets & the Global Economy,” cnbc.com, Jan. 28, 2020.

Asset Bubbles and Where to Find Them,” by Joe Davis, vanguard.com, March 8, 2021.

Value vs. Growth: Widest Performance Gap on Record,” by Katherine Lynch, Morningstar.com, Jan. 11, 2021.

The Pandemic and the Economy

Vanguard Economic and Market Outlook for 2021: Approaching the Dawn,” Vanguard Investment Strategy Group, vanguard.com, December 2020.

Vanguard Economists Discuss Their Global Outlook,” vanguard.com, July 23, 2020.

The ‘Great’ Fall and the Road to Recovery,” by Joe Davis, vanguardinstitutionalblog.com, May 1, 2020.

A Pandemic, a Vaccine, and a Sea of Ideas,” by Joe Davis, vanguardinstitutionalblog.com, Nov. 10, 2020.

The Key to Achieving COVID-19 Herd Immunity,” by Joe Davis, vanguardinstitutionalblog.com, Jan. 27, 2021.

A Timetable for Overcoming COVID-19,” by Joe Davis, vanguard.com, Feb. 1, 2021.

Vanguard’s Joe Davis Talks Healthy Economy Amid Covid,” Bloomberg, Feb. 8, 2021.

Inflation

Vanguard 2020 Outlook: The New Age of Uncertainty,” by Joe Davis, vanguard.com, Nov. 18, 2019.

Inflation Prospects Amid the Pandemic,” by Andrew J. Patterson, vanguardinstitutionalblog.com, May 20, 2020.

Envisioning a Post-Pandemic Future,” by Joe Davis, vanguard.com, Sept. 1, 2020.

Market Outlook

Vanguard Comes to Defense of the 60/40 Portfolio As It Forecasts Stock Market Returns for the Next Decade,” by Steve Goldstein, marketwatch.com, July 25, 2020.

A Sharp Contraction, Then an Upswing,” by Joe Davis, vanguard.com, March 22, 2020.

Why Portfolio Diversification Still Works,” by Amy Arnott, Morningstar.com, March 30, 2021.

Active Fixed Income Perspectives: Q1 2021,” by Active Fixed Income Leadership and Research Teams, vanguard.com, Jan. 28, 2021.

Megatrends

Megatrends: The Future of Work,” Vanguard Research, vanguard.com.

Automation Isn’t the End of Jobs,” Interview with Christine Benz and Joe Davis, Morningstar.com, Nov. 24, 2018.

Quantifying the Future of Remote Work,” by Joe Davis, vanguard.com, Nov. 30, 2020.

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