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NPCC’s Winter Reliability Assessment Predicts Adequate Electricity Supplies Under Forecasted Conditions

NPCC’s Winter Reliability Assessment Predicts Adequate Electricity Supplies Under Forecasted Conditions

(The Assessment covers New York, New England, and Eastern Canada)

Northeast Power Coordinating Council, Inc’s (NPCC’s) annual winter reliability assessment forecasts the NPCC Region will have an adequate supply of electricity this winter to meet projected peak demand under forecasted weather conditions.

The forecast NPCC coincident peak demand of 110,639 MW (the simultaneous peak demand for the entire region) is projected to occur the week of January 22, 2023 and is estimated to be 1,248 MW higher than last winter’s forecast. An installed winter capacity of 169,914 MW is estimated to be in place to meet the forecasted electricity demand, which is 1,156 MW more than last winter.

After accounting for transmission constraints, the region’s spare operable capacity under forecasted conditions during the winter period is estimated to be substantial (capacity over and above reserve requirements) – ranging from approximately 20,400 to 35,200 MW.

“NPCC’s assessment indicates adequate capacity margins and transmission capability to meet the region’s peak demand and required operating reserves under forecasted conditions this winter,” said Charles Dickerson, President and CEO of NPCC. “In addition, an analysis of extreme prolonged cold weather combined with potential severe resource unavailability concluded that strategies and procedures are in place to provide load relief, manage operational challenges and potential emergencies if needed. While our assessment suggests the region’s capacity and transmission capabilities will be adequate, specific areas such as New England could be challenged if prolonged extreme weather occurs.”

New York, Ontario and Quebec forecast adequate resources to meet winter demand. The Maritimes show a limited likelihood of using operating procedures designed to mitigate resource shortages, primarily driven by their forecast load and corresponding reserve margins.

New England’s constrained natural gas pipeline infrastructure and significant reliance on global LNG supplies and fuel-oil, will make situational awareness of fuel inventories critical to meeting New England’s electricity demand. Under mild to moderate winter weather conditions, New England expects to have sufficient resources to meet demand. If prolonged periods of extreme cold weather should occur, ISO New England is prepared to address operational issues and mitigate potential reliability challenges if they arise.

“As conditions warrant this winter, NPCC will facilitate communication among system operators, providing for enhanced regional coordination,” added Phil Fedora, NPCC’s Vice President of Reliability Services and Chief Engineer.

NPCC’s reliability assessment considered a wide range of scenarios through the application of probabilistic methods, including weather conditions derived from over 40 years of data, unexpected generating plant outages, transmission constraints between and within areas, delays in expected in-service dates of planned facilities, the potential for some natural gas generators to be temporarily unavailable during cold or extreme winter conditions as well as shifts in consumer electricity demand.

NPCC’s Reliability Assessment for Winter 2022-2023 is available at:

About NPCC

Northeast Power Coordinating Council, Inc. is one of six Regional Entities located throughout the United States, Canada, and portions of Mexico that, in concert with the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, seeks to assure a highly reliable, resilient, and secure North American bulk power system through the effective and efficient identification, reduction, and mitigation of reliability risks. NPCC’s geographic area includes the six New England states, the State of New York, the provinces of Ontario, Québec, and the Canadian Maritime Provinces of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. Overall, NPCC covers an area of nearly 1.2 million square miles, populated by approximately 56 million people.

NPCC carries out its mission through: (i) the development of regional reliability standards and compliance assessment and enforcement of continent-wide and Regional Reliability standards; (ii) coordination of system planning, design and operations, and assessment of reliability; and (iii) the establishment of Regionally specific criteria and monitoring and enforcement of compliance with such criteria.

Stephen Allen, (617) 640-6522

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