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Morningstar's 2022 U.S. Interest Rate & Inflation Forecast

The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to pivot to ease monetary policy in 2023 as inflation falls and the need to shore up economic growth becomes paramount. Morningstar's current 2026 projection for the federal funds rate is 1.75%, though rates are to dip below this level in 2024 and 2025. Due to the unwinding of price spikes caused by supply constraints, inflation is expected to swing from inflationary to deflationary by 2023, which means curtailing inflation will be much easier. Long-term forces have previously acted to push down interest rates for decades, and these factors will continue to keep rates lower for longer.


This report includes a summary of Morningstar's newest forecast update covering short-term and long-term interest rates, inflation, and monetary policy in the U.S.

Research Library Morningstar's 2022 U.S. Interest Rate & Inflation Forecast...

What's Inside

  • An in-depth forecast update summary on Morningstar's perspective on upcoming interest rates, inflation, the GDP and recession risk, and long-run interest rates.
  • An overview of how monetary policy in the U.S. seeks to calibrate interest rates to balance its goals for GDP and inflation.