Ford’s first-quarter results gave us no reason to change our fair value estimate and we believe there is a chance for positive earnings surprises in 2022 and 2023 as production improves from the chip shortage slowly abating.
We are not changing our GM fair value estimate following what we see as a solid first quarter and one that could have been much worse given U.S. inflation, high commodity costs, and ongoing supply chain issues reducing vehicle production.
We think the move will help the the company attract talent in the competitive electric vehicle industry
We felt fourth-quarter market expectations for Ford were too high and this proved correct. We are not changing our fair value estimate but will reassess all modeling assumptions once the 10-K is filed.
GM’s fourth quarter showed robust adjusted auto free cash flow of $6.4 billion and adjusted diluted EPS of $1.35 beat the $1.19 Refinitiv consensus. We are not changing our fair value estimate.
We think Toyota won out on sales due to the chip shortage and don't expect the company to maintain its lead over GM.
Ford’s F stock surged by over 8% in Oct. 27 after hours trading when it reported third-quarter results of adjusted diluted EPS of $0.51 that beat the Refinitiv consensus of $0.27.
We don't think so. In fact, we think driver demographics bode well for auto sales.
The Chevrolet Bolt battery fire recalls are disappointing but necessary to ensure safety for GM's all-electric future.
We are not worried about long-term damage to the company and expect volume recovery for all automakers once the shortage ends.
We think the worst of the damage was in the second quarter.
We are leaving our fair value estimate in place because we see GM’s aggressive investment in an electric and autonomous future as more important than 2021 results.
We are raising our fair value estimate to $20 from $17 on higher revenue growth and improved 2021 profits, a 70-basis-point increase in our midcycle EBIT margin to 5%, time value of money, and a lower cost of debt.
We expect gradual inventory improvement throughout the year.
Its investor day shows that it's a major player in electrification and connectivity.
It expects the second quarter to have similar wholesale problems to a year ago, but this time due to the semiconductor shortage.
We are increasing our Tesla fair value estimate to $354 from the time value of money adjustment in our model.
We believe the stock trades on the option value of what it may look like years from now rather than on fundamentals and free cash flow generation.
We are maintaining our fair value estimate for the no-moat company.
Ford F finished 2020 with fourth-quarter adjusted diluted EPS of $0.34, nearly triple the prior year quarter’s $0.12 and well above the Refinitiv consensus of a $0.07 loss.
Tesla reported fourth-quarter results that missed the Refinitiv consensus adjusted diluted EPS of $1.03. EPS instead grew 95.1% year over year and by 5.3% sequentially to $0.80.
We expect robust year-over-year growth in 2021 against a soft comparable followed by more tepid growth in 2022.
Its technology has the potential to change the world, but investing carries great uncertainty.
Ford had a strong third quarter with adjusted diluted EPS of $0.65 up 91% year over year and far ahead of the $0.19 Refinitiv consensus. We are raising our fair value estimate to $13 from $8.
We expect the EV maker to keep innovating to stay ahead of competitors.
After taking Tesla out from under review as explained in our Oct. 19 note to upgrade its moat to narrow from none, our new fair value estimate is $319.
We expect to increase our fair value estimate by about 13%.
We see more reasons to oppose a battery electric vehicle spin-off than to support one.
We are raising our fair value estimate to $50 after the automaker announced it is receiving $2 billion of stock in Nikola, a hydrogen and electric vehicle maker.
We are not changing our fair value estimate for either firm.
Retail investors will find shares more attractive after this move, though it doesn't affect the intrinsic value of the company.
We are leaving our fair value in place due to Ford’s high debt load, and we want to see Farley produce meaningful improvement.
Ford reported second-quarter results ravaged by the coronavirus that forced shutdowns, including six weeks of idle time in North America.
Tesla reported profitable second-quarter GAAP results, and adjusted diluted EPS of $2.18 rose significantly from the prior year’s quarterly loss of $1.12.
Despite a major hit in the first quarter, we are not changing our fair value estimate for the no-moat firm.
We are increasing our fair value estimate to $731 from $239. If a recession can’t stop Tesla then virtually nothing will, and we expect the company to remain a leader in autonomous technology and range.
Ford’s first-quarter results suffered hard from COVID-19 and the worst is yet to come.
The move to us is about debt extension, and we believe it does not create new funding for the automaker.
Sales will be horrendous in the near term, but there’s value to be found.
We expect the no-moat firm to survive the damage without going bankrupt.
There is little data to gauge the coronavirus impact on the industry, so we are not changing our forecast at this time.
We expect modest auto market growth this year, with GM and Adient as standouts.
Our analysts offer their annual global auto overview, forecast, and actionable ideas.
We don’t think Ford’s intrinsic value is well below $10 per share as the stock often trades, but we do think the stock will stay in that area for at least all of 2020.
Tesla’s fourth-quarter results showed a $105 million profit with GAAP diluted EPS of $0.56, and adjusted basic EPS of $2.14 easily beat the Refinitiv consensus of $1.72.
Ford, GM, and Penske can continue providing dividends despite sales declines.
Tesla is a volatile name and fair value estimate changes may be frequent as its story changes.
Even after the market’s positive reaction, the stock looks very undervalued.
Our fair value estimate remains in place unless market sentiment becomes too negative.
We are not changing our fair value estimate for the no-moat automaker.