February looks set to be a decent month for jobs growth, but even a poor showing would likely not stop the Fed from raising rates next week.
Real disposable income growth is down considerably from a year ago, potentially providing less firepower for consumption growth ahead.
An 'outrageously bullish' ISM number isn't backed up by durable goods and consumption data, says Morningstar's Bob Johnson.
Upcoming inflation, consumption, auto, and employment reports will be key factors in the decision.
Despite improving growth numbers, the region faces issues that threaten its outlook, Bob Johnson says.
Barring a disaster, inflation should peak around midyear but stagnant wage growth means there isn't much relief for consumers in sight, says Morningstar’s Bob Johnson.
Higher inflation plus steady wage growth equals less consumer spending power, says Morningstar's Bob Johnson.
Trade has fallen from close to 14% of GDP to just 12%, a drop that is more typically associated with a recession than a midcycle recovery.
Morningstar's Bob Johnson says a decline in imports for 2016 is very unusual given the strong dollar, but a couple of issues might be holding them back.
Higher inflation and slower employment data are putting all-important consumption growth at risk.
Two categories helped boost hiring to start 2017, but mixed wage data and broader uncertainty may keep the Fed at bay in March, says Morningstar’s Bob Johnson.
After a below-trend December report, the first employment reading of 2017 is likely to show improvement, says Morningstar’s Bob Johnson.
Data and earnings this week provided more signs that demographics remain a major headwind.
Swings in net exports and inventories obscure the fact that economic growth in 2016 was steady but slow, says Morningstar’s Bob Johnson.
With full-year 2016 GDP growth coming in at only 1.6%, Morningstar’s Bob Johnson thinks this year will only be slightly higher as potential catalysts like tax reform and stimulus could take some time to take hold.
As headline inflation catches up with core inflation and wage growth, consumer spending is likely to be crimped.
A drop in food prices is keeping inflation from looking even worse, but an uptick there could force the Fed to act, says Morningstar's Bob Johnson.
Sentiment indicators are soaring, but current conditions aren't improving yet, and many potential Trump-administration proposals may not have the hoped-for impact.
Business optimism has soared ahead of Trump's inauguration, but Morningstar's Bob Johnson urges caution.
A slow economic environment and industry-specific factors are driving private employment growth lower year over year.
Morningstar’s Bob Johnson sees the Fed in a tough spot trying to balance the pressure of increasing wages against a slowdown in payroll growth.
Morningstar’s Bob Johnson thinks December’s employment numbers could come in below expectations.
Morningstar's Bob Johnson sees several reasons that GDP growth in the new year could come in below the current consensus.
Weak November housing data implies that higher rates may be a headwind for 2017 housing growth.
Despite high hopes, we believe 1.9% GDP growth will prove closer to the mark in 2017.
Sentiment indicators are quite bullish, but Morningstar's Bob Johnson doesn't think the election has had a major impact on spending or housing data yet.
With the impacts of Trump's policies already priced in and current economic data going nowhere fast, the stock market is in no-man's land, writes Morningstar's Bob Johnson.
The Fed’s signals that it will boost rates three times seems plausible given the state of the economy, says Morningstar's Bob Johnson.
Even with a possible stimulus package, we think the economy will be hard-pressed to grow much more than 1.5% to 2.0% in 2017.
Morningstar's Bob Johnson says investors should keep trade, job growth, China, and oil prices on their radars.
The continued slowdown in year-over-year employment growth is no reason to panic, but it does mean consumption growth could also slow.
The low unemployment rate may be grabbing headlines, but the slowdown in real wages is the real economic story, says Morningstar’s Bob Johnson.
Morningstar's Bob Johnson thinks October's jobs report could be above views, but even if it falls short, the Fed will still proceed with a rate hike.
Morningstar's Bob Johnson foresees slow growth ahead as extraordinary monetary policy across the globe can't overcome working population trends.
Morningstar’s Bob Johnson thinks headline inflation could rise over the next year, but it is unlikely to trigger a recession.
Morningstar's Bob Johnson says retails sales were better than expected, and industrial production may be truly bottoming out.
Our new president will likely inherit an economy that is losing steam.
Slowdowns in trade and immigration could hold back the U.S., and infrastructure spending could boost GDP, but it's too early to make any major changes to our economic forecast, says Morningstar's Bob Johnson.
Even if the Fed holds off in December, the pace of future rate hikes may have to rise due to the inflationary nature of many of Trump’s policy proposals.
Lurking behind the stable, more predictable employment numbers is an undeniably sharp decline in monthly job growth rates.
Headline data on wages looks encouraging, but after factoring in inflation and fewer hours worked the picture is less rosy.
Morningstar’s Bob Johnson sees several signs pointing to a below-consensus employment report on Friday.
Despite glowing headlines, we think the economy turned in a poor performance in the third quarter.
The headline growth number may have looked strong, but GDP was mostly driven by special factors while core components looked weak.
Morningstar's Bob Johnson says he expects the growth in the economy to be around 2.4% when the GDP report comes out Friday.
One by one, the pillars of the U.S. recovery are beginning to fade.
The Fed is in a quandary as inflation data confirms that price levels could keep rising, but growth remains tepid.
A sloppy retail sales report wasn't as great as it seemed and raises questions concerning economic strength.
Higher payroll tax receipts were not enough to offset weak corporate taxes and higher spending in 2016.
Though the market was focused this week on Brexit and the Fed, we remain much more worried about slowing growth in the U.S.