We're maintaining our fair value estimates for mRNA vaccine firms.
What does this mean for leading vaccine makers Pfizer, BioNTech, and Moderna?
We're maintaining our fair value estimate for Moderna following disappointing third-quarter results and updated COVID-19 vaccine sales guidance.
We continue to expect a third dose of Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine could eventually be recommended more broadly.
We're not making any changes to our fair value estimates for Moderna, BioNTech, or Pfizer, and we continue to see no-moat Moderna and BioNTech as significantly overvalued at recent prices.
Hopes for eradication fade, further highlighting the benefits of vaccination and boosters.
We don’t expect any changes to fair value estimates or moat ratings for our biopharma coverage.
The mRNA technology that formed the basis of the vaccine provides support to Pfizer's established wide moat and also contributes to BioNTech's positive moat trend.
Firms may face headwinds in U.S. sales, but our fair value estimates haven't budged.
The strong performance was partly due to pandemic headwinds in the second quarter of 2020 creating weaker comparisons.
We've raised the firm's fair value estimate to $401 from $350 per share.
We've raised our fair value estimate for BioNTech to $139 per share.
Following the news the Biden administration supports a proposed waiver on intellectual property protection for COVID-19 vaccines, we are not changing our FVEs to COVID-19 vaccine firms.
Moderna shipped 102 million doses of mRNA-1273 in the first quarter, and reported sales of the vaccine of $1.7 billion in the quarter tracked closely with our $1.9 billion forecast.
The global COVID-19 vaccine market is currently dominated by mRNA firms, but competitors are gaining strength.
Limited vaccine supply in other countries could make global immunity tougher to achieve, though.
The company's COVID-19 vaccine has shown the vast potential of its mRNA technology.
Here is what our new COVID-19 vaccine forecast revealed about the no-moat company.
With multiple oncology data readouts expected in 2021, we think there are many opportunities for Gilead to begin to see meaningful top- and bottom-line growth.
The data doesn't significantly alter our valuation or U.S. herd immunity forecast.
However, the biopharma industry's ability to adapt and innovate to treat disease reinforces our moat ratings.
Successful vaccine development and rollout will boost industry goodwill and reduce ESG risk, but we’re keeping our valuations steady.
We're maintaining our $500 fair value estimate for the narrow-moat drug manufacturer.
Details around its COVID-19 vaccine program were the highlight of Q3, but other drugs in the pipeline also demonstrated decent progress.
We're lowering our fair value estimate for the wide-moat drug manufacturer.
We have once again lowered our fair value estimate for Gilead, and now value the firm at $75 per share following third-quarter earnings.
We lowered our fair value estimate for Gilead to $77 per share.
Based on the data, we've increased our assumed probability of approval for the REGN-COV2 antibody cocktail to 100% from 60%.
We expect multiple approved vaccines by early 2021 with wide vaccine distribution in developed markets by mid-2021.
Resurgences in outbreaks make it clear that ending the pandemic will require more than diagnostic testing, contact tracing, and social distancing.
Management raised its product sales guidance for 2020 by a range of $1.2-$2.8 billion after incorporating coronavirus headwinds and highly uncertain sales assumptions for remdesivir. This guidance fits with our assumption of $2 billion in remdesivir sales in 2020, and we're maintaining our $85 per share fair value estimate for the firm.
Despite encouraging updates from AstraZeneca and BioNTech/Pfizer, we maintain our fair value estimates.
Reforms are likely to be moderate, and we don’t expect significant changes in 2020.
Three new vaccines for coronavirus look poised for emergency use authorization in the U.S. this fall.
We are raising our fair value estimate for the wide-moat firm after their pricing announcement.
We are not making any changes to our fair value estimate or moat rating for either company after their unconfirmed merger discussion.
We're not expecting any changes to our fair value estimates for vaccine manufacturers, however, as most of the firms in our coverage with vaccine candidates have already stated that selling prices would be at a not-for-profit level.
Diagnostic testing, treatment, and a coronavirus vaccine could allow near-normal distancing and nonessential business recovery by mid-2021.
Our coronavirus infection and fatality assumptions have edged down as we settle closer to control.
We're slightly raising our fair value estimate for the wide-moat firm.
We're maintaining our $82 fair value estimate for the wide-moat firm while we await more data from the testing.
Karen Andersen and Preston Caldwell give us their latest perspectives on healthcare and energy.
It already had a solid lineup even before news of its potential COVID-19 treatment.
The hit to 2020 should be significant, but we see minimal long-term economic impact, and the treatment pipeline is progressing.
We don't assume any significant long-term financial impact from the outbreak.
Morningstar's Karen Andersen explains how ESG issues affect Big Pharma and biotech companies.
Morningstar and Sustainalytics offer complementary methodologies.
Details on Alzheimer's drug candidate are encouraging, but uncertainty remains.
We assign a 30% probability of approval of the wide-moat firm's Alzheimer's drug.