Preston Caldwell

Investors should expect additional rate increases even as Powell throws cold water on the idea of a still more aggressive path.

We expect inflation to return to the Fed's target levels by 2023.

We look at near-term headwinds, including Ukraine, to understand the U.S. economy's trajectory.

This was Baker Hughes' best quarter since its 2017 merger with GE Oil and Gas.

The economic recovery shouldn't slow much, but renewed supply chain snarls could keep inflation high.

Inflation and Omicron shouldn't derail growth this year.

Reports of the death of oil have been greatly exaggerated.

In this labor market update, we outline how we expect the factors contributing to the unusually high number of job openings to fade over the next year.

The third quarter served as a reminder that the economic recovery is far from over.

Between achieving net-zero and the rise of electric vehicles, what does the future for oil demand look like?

We think high inflation will be temporary.

Once the vehicle shortage is resolved, inflation should be back on trend.

We've increased our GDP forecast.

Robust e-commerce sales by traditional retailers during the COVID-19 pandemic create a lasting role for physical stores.

Supply-side pressures are behind our increase for this year.

We expect a mid-single-digit impact to average U.S. equity valuations.

We've increased our U.S. GDP growth forecast.

Consumers are ready to spend.

Productive capacity, not stimulus, is what drives the economy’s long-term potential GDP.

Despite stubbornly high unemployment, we have reason to believe fiscal stimulus has helped household finances hold up across all income levels.

The U.S. economic recovery paused at the end of 2020, but it will soon be ready for liftoff.

What happens when the economy is perturbed by an extreme but temporary external shock.

A lot is riding on the coronavirus vaccine.

A narrow majority may pass new stimulus and raise the corporate business tax.

How habits, fear, and sunk costs can reshape economic behavior.

But plenty of upside remains.

Neither the U.S. election outcome nor the coronavirus third wave will derail it.

Macroeconomic impact will likely be muted, and the boost in taxes and spending won't be unprecedented.

In the event of a Biden win, aftertax earnings could take a hit from higher corporate taxes.

We forecast a strong long-run U.S. recovery.

Our research analysts suspect that we've safely averted much of what would result in a long-term financial crisis during the COVID-19 economic downturn.

Risks are far lower than during the last U.S. financial crisis, despite COVID-19's impact.

We don't think the market's engaging in irrational exuberance.

We project a much quicker (and more complete) recovery than the one after the Great Recession.

Fiscal stimulus is already substantially boosting economic activity.

Our experts share what they see happening now and around the corner.

We've updated our near-term GDP forecast and look to previous recessions for longer-term guidance.

But recovery is inevitable, and stocks look very cheap--just watch out for bankruptcy risk.

Investors' current concerns are justified, but vast long-term opportunities remain in this significantly undervalued sector.

Our outlook on how the U.S. will cope during and after the shutdown.

Four companies look extremely cheap even after the fair value reduction, trading an average 70% below our fair value estimate.

A recapitalization has put the company in solid financial health.

It’s proved it can generate shareholder value in even dismal oil market conditions.

It has generally bested all its oilfield services peers in returning cash to shareholders.

The average U.S. tariff rate on China is set to surge.

We think the market's expectations for these firms are much too low.

Our long-term industry assumptions have grown more pessimistic.

Are China and the U.S. headed for a new cold war?

Schlumberger, Weatherford, and TechnipFMC are all trading at at least a 25% discount to fair value.

Higher financial leverage and low pricing on recent asset sales drove our reassessment.