Preston Caldwell

We've increased our U.S. GDP growth forecast.

Consumers are ready to spend.

Productive capacity, not stimulus, is what drives the economy’s long-term potential GDP.

Despite stubbornly high unemployment, we have reason to believe fiscal stimulus has helped household finances hold up across all income levels.

The U.S. economic recovery paused at the end of 2020, but it will soon be ready for liftoff.

What happens when the economy is perturbed by an extreme but temporary external shock.

A lot is riding on the coronavirus vaccine.

How habits, fear, and sunk costs can reshape economic behavior.

But plenty of upside remains.

Neither the U.S. election outcome nor the coronavirus third wave will derail it.

Macroeconomic impact will likely be muted, and the boost in taxes and spending won't be unprecedented.

In the event of a Biden win, aftertax earnings could take a hit from higher corporate taxes.

We forecast a strong long-run U.S. recovery.

Our research analysts suspect that we've safely averted much of what would result in a long-term financial crisis during the COVID-19 economic downturn.

Risks are far lower than during the last U.S. financial crisis, despite COVID-19's impact.

We don't think the market's engaging in irrational exuberance.

We project a much quicker (and more complete) recovery than the one after the Great Recession.

Fiscal stimulus is already substantially boosting economic activity.

Our experts share what they see happening now and around the corner.

We've updated our near-term GDP forecast and look to previous recessions for longer-term guidance.

But recovery is inevitable, and stocks look very cheap--just watch out for bankruptcy risk.

Investors' current concerns are justified, but vast long-term opportunities remain in this significantly undervalued sector.

Our outlook on how the U.S. will cope during and after the shutdown.

Four companies look extremely cheap even after the fair value reduction, trading an average 70% below our fair value estimate.

A recapitalization has put the company in solid financial health.

It’s proved it can generate shareholder value in even dismal oil market conditions.

It has generally bested all its oilfield services peers in returning cash to shareholders.

The average U.S. tariff rate on China is set to surge.

We think the market's expectations for these firms are much too low.

Our long-term industry assumptions have grown more pessimistic.

Are China and the U.S. headed for a new cold war?

Schlumberger, Weatherford, and TechnipFMC are all trading at at least a 25% discount to fair value.

Higher financial leverage and low pricing on recent asset sales drove our reassessment.

The changes are due chiefly to our revised U.S. land drilling forecasts.

We've reduced our long-term pricing forecasts.

Electric vehicle adoption and a shift toward natural gas in China will help boost Cheniere Energy and Royal Dutch Shell.

The downgrade in official growth statistics is almost a nonevent, but an expanded trade war would have major consequences, says Morningstar's Preston Caldwell.

The combined company--which is a true merger of equals--will have a total market enterprise value nearly on par with industry leader Transocean.

The high-spec nature of its fleet won't insulate the offshore driller from the woes afflicting the broader rig market.

Geopolitical issues and global demand may temporarily be pushing oil prices higher, but we don't see that as sustainable.

Halliburton looks especially overvalued.

Sustainably lower costs to extract U.S. shale oil should keep a lid on prices.

But we think the lowest-cost frac sand provider is attractively valued.

The boost reflects our reconsideration of the North American frac sand market.

Many names appear overvalued, but we remain bullish about HollyFrontier, Tesoro, RSP Permian, Antero, and Range.

The lack of an actual OPEC agreement to cut production and the potency of U.S. shale mean a recovery in oil prices isn't likely to occur until 2018, says Morningstar's Preston Caldwell.

We've accelerated our estimate for oil market clearing due to stronger-than-expected demand and supply disruptions, but we're not budging on our lower-than-consensus long-term price forecast.