A default on U.S. government debt isn’t likely, but should one happen, here’s what the damage could look like.
Powell stays hawkish on the inflation fight, but the markets are looking for a less restrictive Fed next year.
Despite the risk of a recession in the first half of the year, we expect economic growth to rebound sharply afterwards.
What could longer-term inflation look like? A deeper look at the data suggests less reason for concern.
We continue to expect the Fed to pause its rate increases in early 2023.
Recession in 2023 now looks like a coin-flip probability as the Fed’s war against inflation continues to escalate.
When will interest rates go down? Here are four key takeaways from our updated forecast.
Despite hot inflation for September, the case for cooling in 2023 remains strong.
A gradual softening of the labor market and slowing wage growth provides room for inflation to cool off.
While Fed officials predict rates going higher than had been expected, we still see rates coming down by the end of 2023.
While inflation should slow in 2023, the Fed is seen as staying on an aggressive path in the coming months.
Rise in labor force participation and slowdown in wage growth bodes well for inflation and the economy.
And we’re still bullish on long-term U.S. GDP growth.
Easing supply chain pressures, falling energy prices should put continued downward pressure on inflation.
Surge in hiring confirms the economy isn’t in recession, but the Fed will be focused on inflation
While there's a risk of recession for 2023, any decline should be mild and short-lived.
We expect a Fed pivot to lowering rates as inflation comes down and the need to shore up the economy grows.
A Fed rate hike Wednesday could be followed by news that the economy shrank for the second quarter in a row.
While inflation hit a 41-year high in June, falling food and energy costs should ease the pain in July.
Wages provide reassuring news on inflation, but Fed still on track for more tightening.
We're more bullish than consensus on long-term GDP and expect inflation to fall much faster, too.
As the battle against rising prices gets even more urgent, risks of recession rise.
Factors driving high food and energy costs should ease, but timing remains uncertain.
It looks like the economy is shifting to a steadier, healthier pace of growth.
Here's why investors are focused on the wrong question.
CPI is still running hot, but evidence grows that the peak has passed.
Moderating wage growth may be a positive sign for the inflation fight ahead.
Investors should expect additional rate increases even as Powell throws cold water on the idea of a still more aggressive path.
Despite a broad jump in inflation in March, the details are encouraging.
We expect inflation to return to the Fed's target levels by 2023.
Despite the bad news on inflation in February, price pressures still look to ease in late 2022.
The February employment report shows solid gains, but the labor market recovery is far from over.
We look at near-term headwinds, including Ukraine, to understand the U.S. economy's trajectory.
Inflation pressures broadened in January and expectations for a bigger move by the Fed grew.
Seven charts on the surge in hiring and expectations for the Federal Reserve.
This was Baker Hughes' best quarter since its 2017 merger with GE Oil and Gas.
The economic recovery shouldn't slow much, but renewed supply chain snarls could keep inflation high.
Five charts on key inflation trends.
The December jobs report may seem muddy, but it's strong enough for the Fed to start raising rates.
Inflation and Omicron shouldn't derail growth this year.
Reports of the death of oil have been greatly exaggerated.
In this labor market update, we outline how we expect the factors contributing to the unusually high number of job openings to fade over the next year.
The third quarter served as a reminder that the economic recovery is far from over.
Between achieving net-zero and the rise of electric vehicles, what does the future for oil demand look like?
We think high inflation will be temporary.
Once the vehicle shortage is resolved, inflation should be back on trend.
We've increased our GDP forecast.
Robust e-commerce sales by traditional retailers during the COVID-19 pandemic create a lasting role for physical stores.
Supply-side pressures are behind our increase for this year.
We expect a mid-single-digit impact to average U.S. equity valuations.