Should Investors Be Worried About the Debt Ceiling?
A default on U.S. government debt isn’t likely, but should one happen, here’s what the damage could look like.
Preston Caldwell
Preston Caldwell is Head of U.S. Economics for Morningstar Research Services LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Morningstar, Inc. He also leads Morningstar’s China macroeconomics research team. Previously, he served as a member of the energy sector team, covering oilfield services stocks and helping to craft Morningstar’s long-term oil price forecasts.
Before joining Morningstar in 2016, Caldwell earned his master’s degree in business administration from Rice University. Caldwell also holds a bachelor’s degree in economics from the University of Arkansas.
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Fed Raises Rates Again, With a Focus on Talking Tough
Powell stays hawkish on the inflation fight, but the markets are looking for a less restrictive Fed next year.
Economic Outlook: A Possible Turning Point in the Struggle to Tame Inflation in 2023
Despite the risk of a recession in the first half of the year, we expect economic growth to rebound sharply afterwards.
Why We Expect Inflation to Fall in 2023
What could longer-term inflation look like? A deeper look at the data suggests less reason for concern.
With Little Progress on Inflation, the Fed Presses Ahead on Inflation Fight
We continue to expect the Fed to pause its rate increases in early 2023.
A Harder Landing for the U.S. Economy Now Looks More Likely
Recession in 2023 now looks like a coin-flip probability as the Fed’s war against inflation continues to escalate.
Why We Expect the Fed to Cut Interest Rates in 2023
When will interest rates go down? Here are four key takeaways from our updated forecast.
CPI Report Suggests the Fed May Step Up Rate Hikes, Again
Despite hot inflation for September, the case for cooling in 2023 remains strong.
Jobs Report Shows the Economy Is Still Chugging Along
A gradual softening of the labor market and slowing wage growth provides room for inflation to cool off.
Fed Signals No Letup in Inflation-Fighting Rate Increases
While Fed officials predict rates going higher than had been expected, we still see rates coming down by the end of 2023.
CPI Report Defies Hopes of Easing Inflation, for Now
While inflation should slow in 2023, the Fed is seen as staying on an aggressive path in the coming months.
Why There Is Good News for Investors in the Jobs Report
Rise in labor force participation and slowdown in wage growth bodes well for inflation and the economy.
Economic Growth May Be Slowing, but It Has Yet to Contract
And we’re still bullish on long-term U.S. GDP growth.
CPI Report Shows Good News on Inflation, but Fed Rate Hikes Remain in the Cards
Easing supply chain pressures, falling energy prices should put continued downward pressure on inflation.
Yes, It's a Strong Jobs Report, but July Probably Overstates the Case
Surge in hiring confirms the economy isn’t in recession, but the Fed will be focused on inflation
GDP Report May Have Showed a Decline, but It's Not a Recession
While there's a risk of recession for 2023, any decline should be mild and short-lived.
Fed Steps Up Inflation Fight Again, but We See Rates Coming Down in 2023
We expect a Fed pivot to lowering rates as inflation comes down and the need to shore up the economy grows.
If the Q2 GDP Report Is Negative This Week, Is It Really a Recession?
A Fed rate hike Wednesday could be followed by news that the economy shrank for the second quarter in a row.
Did the June CPI Report Mark Peak Inflation?
While inflation hit a 41-year high in June, falling food and energy costs should ease the pain in July.
Jobs Data Shows a Strong Economy Amid Recession Fears
Wages provide reassuring news on inflation, but Fed still on track for more tightening.
Economic Outlook: The Near Term Looks Rough, but We're Still Optimistic
We're more bullish than consensus on long-term GDP and expect inflation to fall much faster, too.
Federal Reserve Gets Hawkish on Inflation
As the battle against rising prices gets even more urgent, risks of recession rise.
Hot Inflation May Mean an Even More Aggressive Fed
Factors driving high food and energy costs should ease, but timing remains uncertain.
Job and Wage Growth Moderating, and That's Good News
It looks like the economy is shifting to a steadier, healthier pace of growth.
Is an Economic Recession Likely? (And How Much Does It Matter?)
Here's why investors are focused on the wrong question.
Finally, Some Hopeful Signs on Inflation
CPI is still running hot, but evidence grows that the peak has passed.
Jobs Data Points to More Big Fed Rate Hikes, for Now
Moderating wage growth may be a positive sign for the inflation fight ahead.
Fed Steps Up the Pace of Rate Hikes to Fight Inflation
Investors should expect additional rate increases even as Powell throws cold water on the idea of a still more aggressive path.
Why There Is Good News in the Bad CPI Report
Despite a broad jump in inflation in March, the details are encouraging.
Economic Outlook: Near-Term Challenges Shouldn't Knock Recovery Off-Course
We expect inflation to return to the Fed's target levels by 2023.
Inflation Pressures Broadened Prior to Russia Attack
Despite the bad news on inflation in February, price pressures still look to ease in late 2022.
The Strong Jobs Market Has Plenty of Room to Grow
The February employment report shows solid gains, but the labor market recovery is far from over.
Economic Outlook: Labor Market to Drive GDP Growth
We look at near-term headwinds, including Ukraine, to understand the U.S. economy's trajectory.
7 Charts on the Big CPI Rise, Fed Rate Hike Outlook
Inflation pressures broadened in January and expectations for a bigger move by the Fed grew.
Strong Job Growth Points to an Even More Aggressive Fed
Seven charts on the surge in hiring and expectations for the Federal Reserve.
Baker Hughes' Profitability Surges in Fourth Quarter
This was Baker Hughes' best quarter since its 2017 merger with GE Oil and Gas.
What Omicron Means for the Economy and Inflation
The economic recovery shouldn't slow much, but renewed supply chain snarls could keep inflation high.
Inflation Is Still on the Rise, for Now
Five charts on key inflation trends.
Don't Be Fooled--the Jobs Market Is Strong
The December jobs report may seem muddy, but it's strong enough for the Fed to start raising rates.
2022 Economic Outlook: Recovery Far From Finished
Inflation and Omicron shouldn't derail growth this year.
We're Closer to the Bulls Than the Bears on Long-Term Oil Demand
Reports of the death of oil have been greatly exaggerated.
What the Great Resignation Does and Doesn’t Mean for Economic Recovery
In this labor market update, we outline how we expect the factors contributing to the unusually high number of job openings to fade over the next year.
We're Still Bullish on U.S. GDP Growth
The third quarter served as a reminder that the economic recovery is far from over.
Long-Term Oil Demand Is More Bullish Than You Think
Between achieving net-zero and the rise of electric vehicles, what does the future for oil demand look like?
Economic Outlook: Still Rising
We think high inflation will be temporary.
We Still Expect Elevated Inflation to Be Temporary
Once the vehicle shortage is resolved, inflation should be back on trend.
Economic Outlook: Recovery Moving Quickly Thanks to Soaring Consumer Demand
We've increased our GDP forecast.
Brick-and-Mortar Retail Isn’t Going Away
Robust e-commerce sales by traditional retailers during the COVID-19 pandemic create a lasting role for physical stores.
2021 Inflation Forecast Heads Higher
Supply-side pressures are behind our increase for this year.
What Corporate Tax Rate Hikes Could Mean for Stocks
We expect a mid-single-digit impact to average U.S. equity valuations.