It’s reasonable to expect tapering to start toward the end of 2021 or beginning of 2022.
We're maintaining our fair value estimate of $35 per share.
Wells remains our top pick among the traditional U.S. banks.
We are increasing our fair value estimate for the wide-moat firm.
Capital returns are coming back, but don't forget about valuations.
As all banks 'passed,' we expect sizable share repurchases to be forth coming, and dividend hikes are also on the table.
We expect to update the rate outlook in our banking models to incorporate rate hikes.
We expect the Fed to hold off on hikes until inflation is at or above 2%.
We're increasing our fair value estimate to $76 per share from $74.
With roughly flat net interest income compared with last quarter and higher fee income, revenue is generally holding up.
We're maintaining our fair value estimate of $52 per share.
We are increasing our fair value estimate for the wide-moat bank after an excellent first quarter.
But more dots move toward a rate hike--or hikes--in 2022 or 2023.
We think JPMorgan and Wells Fargo are worth more with less uncertainty now.
We still expect accommodative lean.
We are raising our fair value estimate for the wide-moat firm.
Narrow-moat Citigroup reported mixed fourth-quarter earnings, with EPS of $2.08 handily beating the Factset consensus estimate of $1.34 per share.
We don't plan on changing our $45 fair value estimate for the wide-moat bank.
The wide-moat bank beat our expectations for investment banking, trading, asset management, and mortgage fees.
We anticipate that the Federal Open Market Committee will be in a holding pattern for some time, with the meetings and releases likely to be relatively mundane for a while.
The undervalued bank has good management and a stable franchise.
We forecast that interest rates will stay near zero through 2024.
We’re hoping that fourth quarter results will show a bottom for net interest income, and that a gradual recovery in fees will continue for Wells. Regarding expenses, management said it will give more details on the next call. After updating our projections with the latest results, we are decreasing our fair value estimate to $45 per share from $46.
Despite uncertainty regarding economic outlook and future credit developments, we are maintaining our fair value estimate for the wide-moat firm.
We plan to increase our fair value estimate to $112 for this wide-moat bank.
After updating our projections for the latest quarterly results, we decrease our fair value estimate to $68 per share from $71 per share.
This leaves the FOMC plenty of room to maintain rates at zero for some time, and the committee will not be likely to preemptively raise rates to combat inflation.
The Federal Open Market Committee maintains rates at zero and our current rate forecasts within our bank models remain.
After incorporating these results into our forecast, and after incorporating a 50% probability of Joe Biden being elected and instituting his proposed tax hike, we are lowering our fair value estimate to $28 from $30.
As we’ve long pointed out, JPMorgan remains arguably one of the strongest and highest quality franchises under our coverage, and this showed in second quarter results.
While results aren’t pretty, they remain better than some peers, and most importantly, Citi’s capital levels are holding up as the common equity Tier 1 ratio improved to 11.5%.
The pain continued for Wells Fargo in the second quarter, as the bank reported a net loss of $2.4 billion, or $0.66 per share.
Our key takeaway from the annual Federal Reserve test is that the banking system appears to be well-capitalized.
Future rate hikes will inevitably depend to some degree on the timing and magnitude of an economic recovery.
We're maintaining our call on the U.S. banks and will know a lot more by the second quarter.
We still think consolidation makes sense over the long term for the banking sector.
We don't think the Fed will be in any rush to raise rates, but so far its massive interventions appear to be working.
We examine the capital adequacy and the solvency of the U.S. financial system.
We have incorporated the latest rate cuts and expectations for lower fee income, leading us to a new fair value estimate for Citigroup of $72, down from our previous estimate of $79.
We slightly lowered our fair value estimate for this wide-moat firm after it reported weaker first-quarter earnings.
We have also incorporated the latest rate cuts and expectations for lower fee income, leading to a new fair value estimate for JPMorgan of $113, down from $117.
We're lowering our fair-value estimate for the wide-moat firm.
The wide-moat firm is preparing for loan losses after weak results.
After an in-depth reassessment, we still believe they're undervalued.
We’ve also raised our fair value uncertainty rating to high.
With rates cut to zero, investors should be seriously watching and considering bank stocks as this plays out.
We expect an additional rate cut at the Fed's March meeting, and we are starting to see value emerge within traditional banking.
Regardless of the ultimate effect of the coronavirus on the economy, lower rates today will be a negative for bank profits.
We think a hold on rate movements is the base case for 2020.
Our latest research looks at how banks might be affected at this point in the economic cycle.