Skip to Content
Stock Analyst Update

We Raise Our Fair Value for BioNTech Vaccine Profits

We have added the firm's vaccine candidate to our model with a 60% probability of success.


After analyzing recent developments in the evolving COVID-19 vaccine landscape, we’ve added BioNTech’s (BNTX) vaccine candidate to our model with a 60% probability of success. On a probability-weighted basis, we model about EUR 3.6 billion in 2021 revenue or EUR 2.4 billion in 2021 gross profits for BioNTech. After accounting for probability-weighted milestones to BioNTech and development costs that the company will pay back to Pfizer, we’re raising our fair value estimate to $56 per ADR from $40 and maintaining our no-moat and very high uncertainty ratings.

On July 27, BioNTech and partner Pfizer announced the selection of vaccine candidate BNT162b2 to move forward in late-stage trials. While we have not seen the full published early data for this candidate, the companies reported that b2 (which encodes the full spike protein) showed similar neutralizing antibodies as BNT162b1 (which encodes just the receptor-binding domain of the spike protein), as well a favorable safety profile and T-cell response compared with b1. Importantly, the companies reported that older adults (ages 65-85) vaccinated with b2 demonstrated a higher neutralizing antibody response than that seen in patients who naturally contract the virus. We expect early clinical data for b2 to be published soon.

The global COVID-19 vaccine market is not likely to be a winner-take-all market, given the positive early data we’ve seen from other companies like Moderna and AstraZeneca, manufacturing constraints, and rhetoric from companies like Astra and Johnson & Johnson about not-for-profit pricing. Further, we expect the bulk of vaccine demand to be spread over 2021 and 2022 and believe a long-term revenue stream from BNT162b2 is highly uncertain at this point.

Morningstar Premium Members gain exclusive access to our full analyst reports, including fair value estimates, bull and bear breakdowns, and risk analyses. Not a Premium Member? Get this and other reports immediately when you try Morningstar Premium free for 14 days.

Anna Baran does not own (actual or beneficial) shares in any of the securities mentioned above. Find out about Morningstar’s editorial policies.

Transparency is how we protect the integrity of our work and keep empowering investors to achieve their goals and dreams. And we have unwavering standards for how we keep that integrity intact, from our research and data to our policies on content and your personal data.

We’d like to share more about how we work and what drives our day-to-day business.

We sell different types of products and services to both investment professionals and individual investors. These products and services are usually sold through license agreements or subscriptions. Our investment management business generates asset-based fees, which are calculated as a percentage of assets under management. We also sell both admissions and sponsorship packages for our investment conferences and advertising on our websites and newsletters.

How we use your information depends on the product and service that you use and your relationship with us. We may use it to:

  • Verify your identity, personalize the content you receive, or create and administer your account.
  • Provide specific products and services to you, such as portfolio management or data aggregation.
  • Develop and improve features of our offerings.
  • Gear advertisements and other marketing efforts towards your interests.

To learn more about how we handle and protect your data, visit our privacy center.

Maintaining independence and editorial freedom is essential to our mission of empowering investor success. We provide a platform for our authors to report on investments fairly, accurately, and from the investor’s point of view. We also respect individual opinions––they represent the unvarnished thinking of our people and exacting analysis of our research processes. Our authors can publish views that we may or may not agree with, but they show their work, distinguish facts from opinions, and make sure their analysis is clear and in no way misleading or deceptive.

To further protect the integrity of our editorial content, we keep a strict separation between our sales teams and authors to remove any pressure or influence on our analyses and research.

Read our editorial policy to learn more about our process.