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Quarter-End Insights

Economic Outlook: More of the Same Anemic Growth

Despite high hopes, we believe 1.9% GDP growth will prove closer to the mark in 2017.

  • On a full year-over-year basis, we're forecasting 1.9% GDP growth for 2017, up a bit from our 1.6% projection for 2016 but still anemic.
  • Lower inflation-adjusted wage and income growth will likely suppress consumption growth in 2017.
  • Trade could detract meaningfully from the 2017 GDP calculation, as exports remain lethargic and imports resume their more normal pattern of growth.
  • Our forecast reflects the underlying trends in the economy that have been building for some time but does not account for any Trump administration policies, which could have both positive and negative impacts for the economy.