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ETF Specialist

Rising Valuations Driving Down the Yield of This Utilities ETF

The utilities sector has historically been an income oasis, but demand from income-hungry investors is sending yields lower.

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 Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU) is an appealing option for investors who want broad exposure to defensive, high-yielding U.S. utilities companies. This low-cost exchange-traded fund contains only mid- and large-cap U.S. utilities firms, as it only holds those utilities stocks that are constituents of the S&P 500. That means it owns the more-stable stocks among the steady-Eddie utilities cohort. The fund follows a market-cap-weighted index, which means that larger companies tend to hold more sway. Over time, that has resulted in mixed performance. During periods when large- and mid-cap names outperform smaller-cap ones, this fund does better than an equal-weighted option, while during periods when small- and mid-cap names tend to outperform larger utilities names, an equal-weight utilities ETF would perform better.

This fund's holdings include regulated utilities, diversified utilities, and unregulated power generators. Many utilities firms are known for their reliability and income generation. This ETF is suitable as a satellite holding for a diversified equity portfolio, given that the utilities sector makes up only about 3% of the S&P 500. The fund also can serve as a tactical bet on low interest rates and long-term growth in electricity demand.

Like most ETFs that invest in utilities companies, XLU has historically paid a healthy yield. However, income-hungry investors have driven valuations in the sector up to the point where it yielded a meager 3.4% as of the end of October 2016. This is well below the 4.0% average yield the fund has sported over the past few years.

Before 2000, most investors viewed the utilities sector solely as a reliable, income-generating space, one that wasn't necessarily known for price appreciation. That all changed with the new millennium and the beginning of a long decline in interest rates that unquestionably broadened utilities companies' investor base. Over the longer term, in a rising-rate environment, investors should expect flat returns at best for utilities companies and underperformance when compared with other equity sectors. Higher rates generally make fixed-income instruments more attractive on a relative basis and make bondlike equities, such as utilities companies, less attractive.

During the 10-year period ended Sept. 30, 2016, this ETF's volatility of return of 14.2% was lower than the S&P 500's standard deviation of 15.3%. This fund has been less volatile than the broader market because of the sector's generally stable cash flows and lower sensitivity to economic cycles.

Fundamental View
Long viewed as bond substitutes, utilities tend to generate stable cash flows and attractive yields. There is a long-standing relationship between interest rates and utilities' performance relative to the rest of the market. When rates rise or investors fear higher rates, utilities tend to underperform. During a low-rate environment or when rates are falling, utilities tend to outperform.

Dynamics that utilities-sector investors should watch closely include continued low electricity demand because of the improved energy efficiency of appliances and light bulbs, the impact of low natural gas prices on higher-cost coal and nuclear plants (and broadly, on unregulated power producers), and new environmental regulation, which could result in coal plant closures, reduced emissions, and increased capital investments. In the medium term, new environmental regulation could have the effect of taking plants off line, causing higher power prices and boosting diversified utilities and independent power generators during the next five to 10 years.

Consolidation continues to be a trend as utilities seek opportunities to invest capital and achieve cost synergies. Notable recent deals are  Exelon's (EXC) acquisition of Pepco,  WEC Energy's (WEC) acquisition of Integrys Energy,  NextEra Energy's (NEE) proposal to buy  Hawaiian Electric (HE), Emera's acquisition of TECO Energy, and  Southern's (SO) acquisition of AGL Resources. Some acquirers are paying very high valuations for their targets; persistently low costs of capital are allowing acquirers to pay huge premiums while still making deals earnings-accretive (recent deals have priced in costs of capital at below 6%, so deals have been value-accretive). Separately, some utilities are trying to shed their commodity exposure after several years of lackluster power-generation margins.  Duke Energy (DUK) recently sold its Midwest power-generation fleet, and  PPL Corp (PPL) spun off its merchant generation unit.

Most utilities include debt as part of their capital structure, generally borrowing to fund capital expenditures and issuing dividends from retained earnings. Regulators allow regulated utilities firms to pay dividends, borrow for capital expenditures, and then raise rates to fund debt service. Our analysts assign most regulated utilities narrow Morningstar Economic Moat Ratings, as they have reliable cash flow streams and some monopolylike characteristics but also are subject to regulators. Our analysts assign no moat to unregulated utilities, which are commodity power producers with no differentiated characteristics.

Portfolio Construction
XLU tracks the Utilities Select Sector Index, investing in all 29 utilities companies in the S&P 500, and it weights these holdings in proportion to their float-adjusted market capitalization. S&P's cap-weighting approach limits individual positions to 19% of the portfolio, though XLU's largest holding falls well below that mark. Electric utilities represent 62% of the portfolio, but diversified utilities also have a meaningful weighting (33%). Water utilities and the trio of independent power producers account for 2.1% and 1.9% of the portfolio, respectively. Because of its limited number of holdings, the portfolio is highly concentrated. The top 10 holdings soak up more than 60% of the fund's assets. Additionally, its holdings only account for about 3% of the total assets in the S&P 500. XLU has consistently fallen in the deep-value zone of the Morningstar Style Box.

Fees
The fund charges a reasonable 0.14% expense ratio, making it the third-lowest-cost utilities fund available. Both the fund and its holdings are liquid, which keeps its bid-ask spread tight and minimizes deviations from net asset value. State Street engages in share lending, the practice of lending out the fund's underlying shares in exchange for a fee. It passes about 85% of the gross proceeds to investors, which partially offsets the fund's expenses. Over the five-year period ended Sept. 30, 2016, the fund lagged its index by 0.25% per year.

Alternatives
Investors looking for better-diversified exposure to the utilities sector should consider Vanguard Utilities ETF (VPU). VPU extends its reach further down the market-cap ladder and rests on a broader base of 81 stocks. Despite its better-diversified portfolio, VPU exhibited volatility comparable to XLU during the past five years. VPU's 0.10% expense ratio is less than XLU's, but the Vanguard fund is less than one third its size and trades far less frequently, which may result in a wider bid-ask spread. During the past five years, VPU and XLU were nearly perfectly correlated.

IShares U.S. Utilities (IDU) is a more expensive alternative. Its fees take a 0.44% bite out of the fund's returns each year. For this hefty price, investors get a portfolio of 60 large-, mid-, and small-cap stocks in the Dow Jones Utilities Index. However, IDU and VPU have a very significant holdings overlap.

Fidelity MSCI Utilities Index ETF (FUTY) is a the least expensive alternative (0.08% expense ratio). However, this fund is significantly smaller and is thinly traded. FUTY tracks a slightly different index--the MSCI USA IMI Utilities Index--while VPU tracks the MSCI US Investable Market Utilities 25/50 Index. The two indexes are very similar, with nearly identical weighting schemes, almost the same number of constituents, and minimal differences in their current holdings. FUTY's key differentiating feature is the fact that Fidelity customers with a minimum balance of $2,500 can buy FUTY commission-free. Customers who sell after a short-term period (30 to 60 days) may be subject to a trading fee levied by Fidelity; customers who own for longer periods of time are not subject to any such fee.

 

 

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Ben Johnson has a position in the following securities mentioned above: EXC. Find out about Morningstar’s editorial policies.