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Quarter-End Insights

Economic Outlook: Stop Watching the Fed, Start Following the Consumer

While the world frets about oil and the Fed, all eyes should be on the consumer and demographics.

  • Our GDP forecast for 2015 remains at 2.0%-2.5%, helped by the consumer and held back by a slow world economy and slow commercial construction.
  • While the world frets about oil and the Fed, all eyes should be on the consumer and demographics.
  • Demographics of an aging population will limit employment growth, keeping consumption growth below its long-term trend of 3.6% but above the 1.9% rate of the past 10 years.