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Quarter-End Insights

Our Outlook for the Economy

GDP, employment, and consumption growth have all been stuck in a very narrow range--and are likely to remain so in 2014.

  • GDP growth in 2014 should continue at a 2.0%-2.5% rate, inflation at 1.5%-1.8%, and job growth at 190,000 per month.
  • The recovery continues at a snail's pace, with income and consumption growing at half their normal recovery rate due to slower population growth and an aging demographic.
  • The good news is real hourly wage data points to a stronger labor market.