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Quarter-End Insights

Our Outlook for the Stock Market

In an overall fairly valued market, it's time to be selective.

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  • With its recent rally, the stock market is now trading just below fair value, with stocks under Morningstar coverage trading at 97% of fair value, using a market-capitalization-weighted average. This is quite a bit higher than last quarter, when our coverage universe was trading at 92% of fair value.
  • We have seen correlations among asset classes start to come down (albeit from very high levels), which bolsters our view stated last quarter, that we think investors focusing on specific stock opportunities should do well given this backdrop.
  • Supporting our view that markets will continue to decouple, economic and market performance has meaningfully diverged during the first quarter. The U.S. economy continues to show improvement, while Europe's weakness persists, and uncertainty in Asia has dragged market performance down in that region.


Heather Brilliant has a position in the following securities mentioned above: CMP, NOV. Find out about Morningstar’s editorial policies.