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Quarter-End Insights

Our Outlook for the Economy

More modest growth may go hand-in-hand with a longer, more durable recovery.

  • U.S. GDP growth, consumption, inflation, and employment could all grow by about 2% in 2013.
  • Increased oil production, an improving housing market, and a strong agricultural market make the U.S. a good growth pick for 2013.
  • U.S. economic growth decoupled from both world growth and corporate earnings in 2012.
  • As long as inflation remains below 4%, the U.S. should be able to avoid another recession.