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Quarter-End Insights

Outlook for the Economy

Can the U.S. prosper in a faltering world economy?

  • The U.S. is less dependent on exports than almost any other country, so a general slowing in the world economy would not drastically affect the U.S. economy, though S&P 500 companies that have substantial overseas exposure are another story.
  • The real cause of the global slowing hasn't been European contagion, but intentional government policies to curb inflation. Most countries are in the process of reversing those policies, most notably China and Brazil.
  • Year-over-year data paint a relatively stable picture of the U.S. economy, as consumers have spent steadily while corporations have been more panicky.