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Quarter-End Insights

Outlook for the Economy

The odds of an economic upside surprise in 2012 are substantially higher than a downside surprise, though uncertain risks out of Europe still loom.

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  • After smoothing out bumpy GDP results, the economy is probably growing at about 2%.
  • Potential sources of an upside surprise include increased U.S. oil production, a sharper rebound in auto production and aircraft production (Boeing), and a stronger housing market.
  • Though corporations continue to remain cautious, consumers have continued to spend.


Robert Johnson, CFA does not own (actual or beneficial) shares in any of the securities mentioned above. Find out about Morningstar’s editorial policies.