Indicators Uniformly Bullish
The overall data flow this week was supportive of my 4.5% real GDP growth estimate for 2010.
The key economic indicators this week were uniformly bullish. The addition of 162,000 new jobs in March should provide a psychological lift to consumer moods, in my opinion. This week's announcements of substantially better consumer spending data and from a dramatically improving manufacturing sector should eventually pull employment even higher.
More up-to-date employment indicators, such as initial unemployment claims, the Challenger Gray layoff statistics, and the Monster Employment Index, suggest that more impressive employment advances are within reach.
The overall data flow this week was supportive of my 4.5% real GDP growth estimate for 2010, which I published in this week's quarterly outlook. But as I noted in that article, with the outlook for higher growth comes higher inflation, meaning that long-term bonds continue to be a dangerous place to invest, in my opinion.