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Quarter-End Insights

The Recovery That No One Wants to Believe In

...Except the stock market.

Consumers Start the Ball Rolling
The skepticism surrounding this recovery is like nothing I have ever seen. Every time the economy vaults another hurdle, a new objection is thrown up in its face. When third-quarter 2009 results proved to be surprisingly strong, the pessimists incorrectly stated that it was purely the Cash for Clunkers program that artificially stimulated demand. In the fourth quarter, growth of 5.6% was higher than any official forecast just one month prior to the data's release. This time the skeptics claimed that the high number was an artifact of inventory-restocking programs (again not entirely true).

Now that the first quarter of 2010 looks set to surprise on the upside, I am sure there will be another round of excuses. Perhaps the housing credits or the Toyota incentives or maybe even the weather will get the blame for the upside surprise this time around.