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Investing Specialists

Recession (Unofficially) Over

Even though the economy hasn't been given the official 'all clear,' data confirm the contraction is over.

The determination of when a recession ends is made by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Although I don't believe they formally disclose how they make their decision, it is widely believed that they use four key indicators:

  • Industrial Production
  • Retail Sales
  • Employment
  • Real Income

Industrial production and retail sales are both positive, and based on my estimates, real incomes barely turned positive last month and are likely to be even more positive this month.