Recession (Unofficially) Over
Even though the economy hasn't been given the official 'all clear,' data confirm the contraction is over.
The determination of when a recession ends is made by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Although I don't believe they formally disclose how they make their decision, it is widely believed that they use four key indicators:
Industrial production and retail sales are both positive, and based on my estimates, real incomes barely turned positive last month and are likely to be even more positive this month.