Weekly Wrap: Stocks, Funds, and Lessons From the Second Quarter

The first half of 2021 is officially in the books. The stock market notched double-digit gains, earnings growth was healthy, and inflation heated up. Thanks to rising coronavirus vaccination rates here in the United States, we seem to be on track for a return to something resembling normalcy. In fact, I'm writing this week's edition of Smart Investor from my desk at Morningstar's Chicago office--my first time sitting in this chair since March 2020.

What can we expect in the year's second half? I'm no crystal-ball gazer, but based on the commentary of Morningstar's analysts and strategists featured in our quarter-end coverage, here are a few of my thoughts for what the next six months may bring:

• The economic recovery will continue to move quickly because of soaring consumer demand. We're going to restaurants. We're flying. We're going to see movies. Our spending may shift away from goods and more toward services as the country continues to reopen, but we will nevertheless spend, spend, spend for the foreseeable future--and that will drive strong economic growth.
• Inflation will continue to rise, at least in the short term, given robust consumer activity and supply-chain challenges. Morningstar expects full-year inflation to clock in near 3% for 2021--the highest level since 2008.
• The oil markets will remain tight this year as global demand continues to outpace supply. Filling our tanks probably won't be getting cheaper anytime soon.

What does this outlook mean for our investments? Morningstar director of personal finance Christine Benz suggests that retirees make sure they have some inflation protection in their portfolios. She also recommends that investors nearing retirement still maintain a high-quality, short- to intermediate-term bond buffer, despite the constrained returns that the asset class offers today. And although wide-moat stocks have outperformed the market this year, Morningstar U.S. market strategist Dave Sekera thinks now is a good time to trade up to high-quality companies.

For more insights from Morningstar's specialists about the quarter in funds, stocks, and the market, check out our special report, "Morningstar's Take on the Second Quarter."

--Susan Dziubinski

Editor's Picks

Morningstar's Take on the Second Quarter
Our analysis of the second quarter in stocks and funds.

3 Investment Lessons From the First Half of 2021
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Digging Into Vanguard Dividend Growth
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An Executor's Guide to Inherited Retirement Benefits: RMDs
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Tesla Charges Ahead
We boosted our valuation on an improved profit outlook, but the EV maker still isn’t a buy.

Why Bonds Still Matter
Low yields and the potential for rising inflation notwithstanding, bonds are still valuable within a diversified portfolio.

Portfolio Planning and Personal Finance With Christine Benz

Don't Be Dogmatic About Retirement-Portfolio Withdrawals
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The Second Quarter in Bond Funds
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The Second Quarter in International Stock Funds
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The Year in ETFs so Far
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Q2 Top Stock Performers on Morningstar's Coverage List
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Market Outlook: Stocks Looks Fairly Valued
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Economic Outlook: Recovery Moving Quickly Thanks to Soaring Consumer Demand
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Should These 11 Travel Stocks Be on Your Radar?
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Drugmakers, Biotech Pressured by Policy Risk, but We Don't Expect Big Regulatory Changes
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Should I Invest in Airbnb?
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Rekenthaler Report

The Best Investment Politics Is Strong Performance
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How Different Generations Define Retirement
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Leif Dahleen: Finding Financial Independence
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Speculating and Investing Are Not One and the Same
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